October 2025: Is the crypto bull market about to begin?

To be honest, I’ve been increasingly convinced that October 2025 could mark a key turning point for the crypto market. Not just because everyone’s talking about it, but based on several tangible signals I’ve observed.

Insights from historical cycles

If you look back at Bitcoin’s history, you’ll notice something interesting: in past bull runs, acceleration often started around October.

In the 2017 bull market, Bitcoin went from under $1,000 at the start of the year to nearly $20,000 by year-end, but the real breakout began in October. A similar pattern appeared in 2021: although there was an upswing in March, the true peak came in November, with the ignition again around October.

Some analysts using the “post-halving cycle” model predict that October 2025 could be the peak of this cycle. There’s also the “884-day cycle” theory, which suggests the span from bull-market bottom to top is roughly 884 days. If you anchor on Bitcoin’s fourth halving in April 2024, the next peak window indeed falls in August–October 2025.

Spillover from equity market sentiment

Crypto is increasingly intertwined with traditional finance. After Q3 earnings season ends each year, equities often see a rebound. Once corporate results land, uncertainty drops, investor confidence recovers, and risk appetite rises.

That optimism tends to spill over into crypto. As equities enter the traditionally strong fourth quarter, capital looks for higher-return opportunities, and crypto fits the bill. More importantly, Bitcoin ETFs have made it easier for traditional investors to allocate to digital assets. Recent data shows spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen their largest institutional inflows since July.

The push from the rate-cut cycle

In September, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points—the first step into an easing cycle in four years. Rate cuts lower the cost of capital, increase liquidity, and make investors more willing to chase higher-risk, higher-reward assets.

However, the liquidity impact of rate cuts takes time to transmit. Some analyses suggest that this liquidity won’t fully reach the crypto market until mid-December, with range-bound chop potentially lasting 30–60 days. In other words, October is right when the “reservoir period” of liquidity ends and the market may start to break out.

Tom Lee of Fundstrat put it bluntly: “Bitcoin is very sensitive to monetary policy. The September rate cut is an important catalyst. I think Bitcoin can easily reach $200,000 by year-end.”

Signals from institutions

Market sentiment is heavily influenced by key institutions and individuals.

MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy) is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, currently holding 640,000 BTC. Even as its share price declined, they continued to accumulate Bitcoin—this actions-speak-louder-than-words approach sends a strong bullish signal to the market.

Tom Lee predicts Bitcoin could reach $200,000–$250,000 by the end of 2025, based on the overlapping effects of the halving cycle, ETF inflows, and improving macro liquidity.

Cathie Wood is even more long-term bullish. ARK Invest forecasts Bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030. While that’s a longer-term vision, her continued additions to crypto-related companies do inject confidence into the market.

The foundational role of stablecoins

If Bitcoin is the “flagship” of crypto, stablecoins are the “infrastructure.” By mid-2025, the stablecoin market had reached $252 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for about 90% of the market.

Stablecoins matter because they bridge fiat and the crypto world. As more institutions and individuals enter via USDC and USDT, liquidity rises substantially while volatility risks can be reduced. PayPal launched PYUSD, and Visa integrated USDC payments—moves that are paving the way for the next bull market.

My thoughts

Taking all this together, I do think October 2025 is worth watching. Historical cycles, equity-market sentiment, rate cuts, institutional moves, and stablecoin development all seem to point to the same time window.

That said, market predictions are never 100% certain. I’m sharing these observations to offer a framework for thinking. If my judgment turns out wrong, that’s still a valuable learning opportunity— :).

Markets are always full of uncertainty; macroeconomics, geopolitics, and regulatory shifts can all rewrite the script. The important thing is to form our own judgments rather than blindly following others’ forecasts.

What do you think?